There are probably a couple of factors that are effecting numbers. First, when you miss a shot, it depletes the shed. It can take a couple of cycles for the shed to be refilled. Until the shed is filled again, numbers may be wonky.
Second, Bear is bouncing. Every time he has numbers in the blues or greens, he bounces into the reds. It can take up to 72 hours for a bounce to clear. The only thing that will help is for Bear to spend more time in lower numbers so his liver doesn't keep panicking and dumping glucose and counterregulatory hormones into his bloodstream. When this happens, it drives numbers up.