Taking 20% meter variance into consideration, though he is lower at +2, he may not necessarily have a hugely active cycle. He could just be bobbling about on his bounce, or he may be trying to clear it, it's not really clear cut which way he's heading at the moment.
I do however think it's a great idea to get your friend to check in on him. With the data at hand and the recent dose changes that you have had to make, it's hard to say what he is going g to get up to this morning, so better safe than sorry.