5/7 Sebastian AMPS 194 +3 166 +6 178 +9 249 PMPS 256 +2 203 +11 111

I wonder whether that 194 was him on his way up, after going a little lower last night, or if he just started to drop as he got to amps???

Time will tell.
 
Gill & George said:
I wonder whether that 194 was him on his way up, after going a little lower last night, or if he just started to drop as he got to amps???

Time will tell.
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It looks like he just steadily dropped all night. 287 to 255 over 4 hours is 8 points per hour. 255 to 194 over 6 hours is 10 points an hour. Given meter variance, it seems like just a steady drop. For him to have gone lower and then come back up would mean the drop would have had to pick up some steam and we've never really seen that happen in the back half of his cycle. But we'll see what happens today.
 
Justin & Sebastian said:
It looks like he just steadily dropped all night. 287 to 255 over 4 hours is 8 points per hour. 255 to 194 over 6 hours is 10 points an hour. Given meter variance, it seems like just a steady drop. For him to have gone lower and then come back up would mean the drop would have had to pick up some steam and we've never really seen that happen in the back half of his cycle. But we'll see what happens today.
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If only it were that simple, it does look like he was dropping into PS, that said, it's important to be open to the possibility that he dropped and is on the rise and ask yourself that question. It's not unusual for Sebastian to have a late nadir. It's one of the reasons I always liked to get a +11. Usually I would get a pm +5 and then a +11, that way if I was faced with a PS that was lower than +5 I new which way the numbers were heading.

The advantage of that:
  1. +11 was lower than PS then I new that it was likely he may have gone lower.
  2. if +11 was higher than PS then I knew I was shooting a dropping number, so I knew to watch for an active cycle once I shot. Shooting a falling PS often leads to quite an exciting cycle. So I would get a +1 and +2 so if necessary I could feed to stay ahead of the numbers.
  3. If he was flat, we'd probably get an active, but not 'crazy' cycle.
 
111@+11. Not sure if it's because he didn't eat much PM food and probably hasn't eaten in several hours, but I'm going to continue to hold at 2u and see what he does today.
 
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