Hi all,
I don't know if any of you have ever seen or used this site, but it absolutely the best site for plain (and calming) information about huricanes:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical.html
I have used it for probably 15 years? The most important page is the link to "discussion". They do a fantastic job of reporting current and future status of each storm, and in terms that everyone can understand.
The thing I always keep in mind is this. When a storm is still days away from landfall, there are only official updates every six hours (5 and 11 am and pm Eastern time). When a storm gets closer (2 days?) from landfall, they post an official update every 3 hours. Every TV station and website uses the same official forecast to generate their reports and forecasts.
What I have noticed over the years is that all the local and even Weather Channel reports overreact. Especially local reports. I think they all do it to fight for viewer/market share. Every time there's any chance at all that there's some tropical weather coming, you get 15 minute updates that do nothing but make people freak out and panic. I
can understand that. I've been afraid (and respectful) of Hurricanes since I experienced my first one in 1979. I rode out Hurrican David in a single wide mobile home not realizing I could have been dead if it had been anything bigger than a Cat 1 when it passed over. I saw what Hugo did in 1989 and it missed us by 100 miles. I've evacuated once, I think it was Floyd maybe? I've boarded up my windows 3 times, thankfully for nothing as they all turned north.
Anyway, I've been watching the 6 hour updates for probably 3 days? (Hey, there's an app for that!), but have been using the plymouth state website every time. In a 24 hour period, the projected landfall went from Miami, to Jacksonville, to Brunsick, and to Charleston, SC (that one puckered me up!). Then from there to the NC/SC border, to Wilmington, to the Outer Banks, and now it looks like Cape Cod? Every 6 hours they move it further north and east. I just read the "discussion" and it looks like it should remain off the coast, but pass by the NC coast as a Cat 4. That's huge. I would expect anyone close to the NC coast is going to lose power probably, but you would be on the "good" side of the storm rather than on the Northeast side of it. The only thing that has me concerned is that at 36 hours there seems to be disagreement as to whether it continues moving NE, or decides to go straighter North. Straight north would be the lower half of the NC coast.
Makes total sense to be evacuating the NC coast now, because if not, that would only give them 24 hours to get out of dodge before landfall. Anyone who is on the board who lives near the coast knows what to do, and how to prepare. I'm praying it just keeps turning and leaves you alone.
I just wanted to post the link in case anyone isn't familiar with what I've found to be the most reliable and accurate Hurricane info site I've found in 15 or so years.
Carl
