With the disclaimer that I'm pretty new.....and nowhere near as knowledgable as the pros around here.
Perhaps he's bouncing off that preshot 200 - not that it's particularly low - but compared to last nights numbers - its a dramatic shift that might have confused his liver a bit. (like what happened on 2/24). Or maybe he's just having one of those kinda sorta flat curve sorts of days......with that 20% variance it might not be as dramatic an increase as it looks.
He does seem to like to confuse you though....
Em